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Jeremy Barousse is trying to keep everyone calm. The head of an East San Jose immigrant rights nonprofit remembers the last time Donald Trump threatened mass deportations: distraught parents choosing relatives or friends to care for their children if they were swept up in ICE raids; school principals reporting classrooms half empty as terrified students refused to leave their parents’ sides; and dozens of undocumented immigrants lining up outside his office before 8 a.m. every morning hoping for legal advice protecting them from deportation. That was the winter of 2018, and aside from sporadic arrests of those with criminal records, their worst fears never materialized. This time, though, with Trump taking office again in January and confirming this past week that he intends to declare a national emergency and use the military to roundup millions of undocumented immigrants, deportation fears are reaching new levels. “We’re hoping that that doesn’t become a reality,” said Barousse, director of policy for Amigos de Guadalupe that provides immigration, education and other services in the largely Latino Mayfair neighborhood and is nonetheless helping train residents what to do in case of ICE raids. “We’re preparing for the worst-case scenario. But then also, we don’t want to contribute to the panic.” Congressman-elect Sam Liccardo, San Jose’s mayor during Trump’s first term, said just the fear of deportations alone is hurting the immigrant community. “The disruption to the daily lives of millions of families is real, whether he carries out his threat or not,” Liccardo said in an interview from Washington, D.C., where he was moving into his new offices last week. And while the Bay Area is lucky to have a network of nonprofits supporting the immigrant community, he said, “the second coming of Trump has many inevitable challenges, and we won’t be able to mitigate them all.” An operation to remove the estimated 11 million to 13 million undocumented immigrants living within the United States — which Trump says he will start on “day one” — seems a Herculean task for the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency that has deported from the nation’s interior no more than 237,000 in a single year. That was the high in 2009 under President Obama, after gaining momentum from 9/11. During Trump’s first term, ICE deportations — not including border operations — peaked in 2018 at 96,000, according to ICE data. To achieve Trump’s deportation goals would require more than $300 billion over four years, estimates the American Immigration Council, including new agents and judges and other staffing, and 1,000 new immigration courtrooms, and scores of new detention centers. ACLU lawyers are already concerned that in the East Bay could be converted into one of those detention facilities — an easy drop-off spot for Bay Area roundups. But how much is Trumpian hyperbole and how much is reality? Last year, Trump’s former immigration adviser Stephen Miller, now his incoming deputy policy chief, told the New York Times that “Trump will unleash the vast arsenal of federal powers to implement the most spectacular migration crackdown.” But earlier this week, Trump’s new “border czar” Thomas Homan told Fox News that “It’s not going to be a massive sweep of neighborhoods,” adding that “public safety threats and national security threats will be the priority.” Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, senior fellow at the American Immigration Council, says that those with criminal histories make up only a fraction of the total, and “if the Trump administration truly wants to deport millions of people, it is going to have to go after people who don’t have criminal records.” And that means ICE agents will likely focus on community arrests — especially in the he said. So which immigrant groups might be most vulnerable to the new administration? ICE agents will likely start with the “low-hanging fruit,” Reichlin-Melnick said — immigrants already in the system with a paper trail. An estimated 1.3 million people living here who may have missed a court hearing or lost their court cases and re-entered the country, or those given “administrative grace” to stay — perhaps to care for an ill child who is a citizen — and already check in regularly with ICE. Exactly how many undocumented immigrants with criminal histories are living in the country is less certain, although ICE i — some of whom may be in prison, have pending criminal charges or are awaiting immigration proceedings. During the February 2018 raids in Northern California that then-Oakland , ICE announced the arrest of 232 people over four days, including some for violent and sexual offenses. Criminals, however, already are the priority of ICE agents. Prisoners and inmates handed over for deportation have long made up 4 of 5 ICE arrests, according to the American Immigration Council. Although California’s state prisons are allowed to release undocumented prisoners to federal ICE agents when they complete their sentences, local police and sheriffs across the state, whose inmates often have committed lesser offenses, , are not. As Santa Clara County Sheriff Bob Jonsen puts it: “We haven’t done it. We won’t do it and we’ll continue to stay strong on that front.” The targets of raids will likely be workplaces such as construction sites, restaurants and farms with the largest number of undocumented immigrants in one place that ICE “can arrest in a splashy operation to send a message,” Reichlin-Melnick says. While about 60% of farmworkers have work permits, the remaining 40% are undocumented, making them vulnerable to deportation. Unless they are picked up for criminal offenses, however, they are rarely targeted, often “because of pressure from the business community,” he said. Farmers have been big supporters of Trump. President Obama granted them special status in 2012 as part of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program. Most are in their 20s and 30s now, with work permits they renew every two years. More than half a million live in the United States, including about 183,000 in California. Trump tried to shut the program down during his first term, but the U.S. Supreme Court blocked him in January 2020. A new conservative majority could rule in his favor this time. “ 35, a hardware technician at Google who has been here since he was 5. “It feels like Trump’s got more of a chip on his shoulder this time around.” Including DACA holders, some 1.5 to 2 million people hold some form of temporary status that allows foreigners confronting armed conflicts, natural disasters or other extreme temporary conditions at home to live in the U.S. temporarily. California is home to nearly 70,000 TPS holders, including those from El Salvador and Nicaragua. Bay Area nonprofits are hearing from asylum seekers, who recently crossed the border illegally and are fighting their cases in immigration court. “ICE is not going to be arresting those people,” Reichlin-Melnick says. “They have already been arrested. They are already checking in with ICE.” And the Trump administration cannot ramp up deportations of people already in the system, he said, without increasing the number of immigration judges.u jies

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Julia Wick | (TNS) Los Angeles Times As California politicos look ahead to 2025, the biggest question looming is whether Vice President Kamala Harris — a native daughter, battered just weeks ago by presidential election defeat — will enter the 2026 California governor’s race. Related Articles National Politics | Senate begins final push to expand Social Security benefits for millions of people National Politics | Trump taps immigration hard-liner Kari Lake as head of Voice of America National Politics | Trump invites China’s Xi to his inauguration even as he threatens massive tariffs on Beijing National Politics | Pressure on a veteran and senator shows what’s next for those who oppose Trump National Politics | What Americans think about Hegseth, Gabbard and key Trump Cabinet picks AP-NORC poll Harris has yet to give any public indication on her thoughts and those close to her suggest the governorship is not immediately top of mind. But if Harris does ultimately run — and that’s a massive if — her entrée would seismically reshape the already crowded race for California’s highest office. Recent polling suggests Harris would have a major advantage, with 46% of likely voters saying they were somewhat or very likely to support her for governor in 2026, according to a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey co-sponsored by The Times. “If Vice President Harris were to choose to run, I am certain that that would have a near field-clearing effect on the Democratic side,” Rep. Katie Porter, D-Irvine, said during a recent UC Irvine panel interview . Porter, a high-profile Democrat who has been eyeing the wide-open governor’s race, has yet to say whether she plans to run. Porter’s point was broadly echoed in conversations with nearly a dozen California political operatives and strategists, several of whom requested anonymity to speak candidly. Most speculated that a Harris entry would cause some other candidates in the race to scatter, creating further upheaval in down-ballot races as a roster of ambitious politicians scramble for other opportunities. “In politics, you always let the big dogs eat first,” quipped Democratic political consultant Peter Ragone. The current gubernatorial field is a who’s who of California politicians, but lacks a clear favorite or star with widespread name recognition. The vast majority of California’s 22 million voters have yet to pay attention to the race and have little familiarity with the candidates. The list of Democratic candidates includes Los Angeles’ first Latino mayor in more than a century ( Antonio Villaraigosa ); the first female and first out LGBTQ leader of the state Senate ( Toni Atkins ); the sitting lieutenant governor and first woman to hold that post ( Eleni Kounalakis ); the state superintendent of public instruction ( Tony Thurmond ) and the former state controller ( Betty Yee ). Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom is serving his second term as California governor, meaning he is ineligible to run again. Several other Democrats, including Porter, outgoing Health and Human Services Director Xavier Becerra and state Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta have also publicly toyed with the idea of a run. They could be less likely to enter the fray should Harris decide to run. What the billionaire mall mogul Rick Caruso — who has also been exploring a run — would choose to do is an open question, as Caruso might contrast himself with Harris as a more centrist candidate. The real estate developer was a registered Republican until November 2019. It’s unlikely that Harris will proffer a public decision in the immediate term, leaving plenty of time for political insiders to game out hypotheticals in the weeks and months to come. Harris’ office did not respond to a request for comment. “I think every candidate for governor is trying to get some kind of intel,” Mike Trujillo, a Los Angeles-based Democratic political consultant and former Villaraigosa staffer, said of a potential Harris run. Trujillo speculated that Harris’ current state was probably similar to Hillary Clinton’s hiking sojourns in the Chappaqua woods after losing to Donald Trump in 2016, or Al Gore growing a beard in the bruising aftermath of his 2000 defeat. “The first thing she’s probably thinking about is, ‘Well, can I run again for president in four years?’ Not, ‘Do I run for governor in two years?’” said one political operative who’s worked with Harris in the past. Harris maintains a home in Brentwood and previously served as California’s senator and attorney general. A successful run for governor in 2026 would almost certainly impede a grab for the presidency in 2028. (Though if history is any guide, an unsuccessful run for California governor does not definitively preclude a bid for the Oval Office: Two years after losing the White House to John F. Kennedy, Richard Nixon lost the 1962 contest for governor to Pat Brown . The Yorba Linda native became the nation’s 37th president in 1969.) As the chief executive of a state that doubles as the world’s fifth-largest economy, Harris would have more power to steer policy and make changes as a California governor than she did as vice president, where her job required deference to President Biden. But leading a state, even the nation’s most populous, could feel like small potatoes after being a heartbeat (and a few dozen electoral votes) from the presidency. The protracted slog to November 2026 would also be a stark contrast to her ill-fated 107-day sprint toward the White House, particularly for a candidate whose 2020 presidential primary campaign was dogged by allegations of infighting and mismanagement. “I don’t think Kamala Harris has a deep psychological need to be governor of California, or to be in elective office in order to feel like she can contribute to society,” said the operative who’s worked with Harris in the past. “I think some of these people do, but she’s somebody who has enough prominence that she could do a lot of big, wonderful things without having to worry about balancing California’s budget or negotiating with Assemblyman Jesse Gabriel,” the Encino Democrat who chairs the Assembly’s budget committee. Technically, Harris has until March 2026 to decide whether she enters a race. But political strategists who spoke to The Times theorized that she probably would make a move by late spring, if she chooses to do so. “People will be more annoyed if she drops in in June,” a Democratic strategist involved with one of the gubernatorial campaigns said. Sending a clear signal by February would be more “courteous,” the strategist continued, explaining that such a move would give candidates more time to potentially enter other races. Kounalakis is a longtime friend and ally of Harris’ , and the vice president also has long-term relationships with some of the other candidates and potential candidates. California has eight statewide elected offices and campaign finance laws allow candidates to fundraise interchangeably for them, meaning money already raised for a candidate’s gubernatorial campaign could easily be redirected should they decide to run for, say, lieutenant governor instead. There are already a number of candidates running for lieutenant governor, including former Stockton Mayor Michael Tubbs, former state Sen. Steven Bradford and former state Treasurer Fiona Ma. But that office probably would see even more interest should Harris enter the gubernatorial race. It’s a largely ceremonial position, but one that has served as a launching pad for the governorship. Still, even if Harris does enter the race, Republican political strategist Mike Murphy threw cold water on the idea that she would have an automatic glide path to the governor’s office. “It’s like Hollywood. Nobody knows anything. She’s famous enough to look credible in early polling. That’s all we know for sure,” Murphy said. “Does that predict the future? No. Are there a lot of downsides (to a potential Harris candidacy)? Totally, yes.” ©2024 Los Angeles Times. Visit latimes.com. 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