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Qatar tribune Zaki Kaf Al-Ghazal One of the earliest slogans of the 2011 revolutionaries in Syria was, “The Syrian people will not be humiliated.” They were right. In the end, it was their President, Bashar Al-Assad, who fled from Syria in the middle of the night without even notifying his loyalists. He made a quick exit knowing that all was lost. The Assad family mafia, which has been in power for 54 years, has collapsed. The president of Syria for 24 years is now apparently in Moscow. After an uprising that has lasted 13 years, the significance of this news cannot be understated. Syria is currently the only bastion of the 2011 Arab Spring with a live revolution left. Egypt, Tunisia and Bahrain fell prey to the forces of the counter-revolution, whilst Libya and Yemen were engulfed totally by chaos. Russia and Iran have essentially kept the Assad regime in place over the past few years; the former with diplomatic protection at the UN and constant air support, and the latter with its militias and proxies, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah, working on the ground to organise Assad’s forces. Russia has had access to Mediterranean ports for its navy, whilst Iran has used Syria to expand its hegemony in the region and supply arms to Hezbollah with ease. Even Israel has benefited from the Assad family, and has been advocating quietly for him to stay. The Golan Heights, occupied illegally by Israel since 1967, have been quiet since 1973 and Israel has craved the stability that the Assad regime has offered. Efforts to normalise and rehabilitate the Assad regime gained traction only 18 months ago as various Arab states rushed to readmit Bashar to the Arab League, with policymakers and pundits commenting that Assad has won and that the war is over. As mentioned on multiple occasions, though, Assad’s “victory” was both pyrrhic and short term. The swift collapse of his regime in a matter of days only lends credence to this view. The governance of Syria by Assad and his cronies has been an utter failure. Syria is recognised by experts as a failed state. The economy is moribund, and life there has come to a grinding halt for most of its citizens. Emigration and the fleeing of hundreds of thousands of working-age men who are refugees across the Middle East and Europe because they fear living under Assad’s rule has hit the regime hard. There are no opportunities for the young, and unless its citizens have access to remittances from abroad or have support from benefactors in the state or pro-government militias, then even buying bread and groceries are difficult due to rampant inflation. Syria is now also a narco-state, and it seems that the regime has collapsed under the weight of its own incompetence and brutality. Moreover, Assad’s allies have been unimpressed with him more recently.A number of senior Iranian army commanders have been killed in Syria in recent weeks and months, having been targeted by Israeli air strikes. The fact that this has been happening so often has led to questions about Assad’s officials leaking information to the occupation state. Whether intentional or a result of endemic corruption in the military, the Iranians are deeply unhappy that a regime that they have propped up for years can’t keep its benefactor’s commanders safe. Russia, meanwhile, has been unhappy about Assad’s reluctance to engage with the Astana Peace Process, which, ironically, happens to be weighted heavily in his favour. It is also worth mentioning that the issue of Syrian refugees in Turkiye has become a challenge for President Erdogan, who has been keen to find a solution and resettle them after coming under domestic pressure to do something. The Arab states which have pushed for normalisation with Assad over the past year and a half have not seen any fall in the captagon trade which his regime has fuelled, and are having to deal with the consequences. Assad has done nothing to show that he’s distanced himself from Iran which was part of the Arab states’ demand for normalising relations with Damascus again. And although Assad has claimed for years to be a part of the “Axis of resistance”, the regime has said and done nothing as Gaza burned and its people continue to face a genocide, even as thousands of Palestinian refugees are still in Assad’s prisons, and people still remember his massacres of them. The accumulation of all of these circumstances and events provided the opposition in Syria with the opportunity to strike now. The opposition forces today are a different proposition to those of the early revolutionary years, when they were loosely organised factions with little access to weapons. There seems to be a sense of unity amongst them which has been missing. Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), operating under the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG), and other factions — including Ahrar Al-Sham, the Sham Legion and the Nour Al–Din Al-Zenki Movement, for example — used the element of surprise to launch an attack on Aleppo which was more successful than people thought it would be. Assad’s forces, the Syrian Arab Army, are a hollow shell of their previous self; morale is low and funding has been cut for months due to economic problems. Even a last-minute attempt to raise the troops’ salaries didn’t offer any encouragement. The soldiers being called up were young men forced onto the front-line; professional troops were killed in combat years ago or had defected. These young men saw Israel as their enemy, not fellow Syrians. Moreover, there were tensions with the few Iranian units still on the ground, with Syrian soldiers feeling that they were looked down upon in their own country, which didn’t bode well. When this is factored in alongside the absence of Hezbollah due to the movement’s weakening in the war with Israel, it should have been no surprise that the Syrian regime forces collapsed as quickly as they did. The opposition forces in Idlib, meanwhile, were organising and preparing themselves over a longer period, had established a local governing system and had even managed to make and produce some of their own weapons, including the “Shaheen” drones which helped in their quick advance towards Aleppo and Damascus. When Aleppo was liberated, the Assad regime repeated the same tactics it has used over the course of the 13 year conflict, shelling the city and bombing hospitals to terrorise its citizens into submission. This time though, due to Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine and its own exasperation with the regime, its support was much more limited, and Assad’s air strikes alone weren’t enough.He was arrogant and thought that he was his father, Hafez, who was well-known for the “hamburger trick”; he would toy with other leaders, pretending to offer something substantive (the “hamburger”), while actually just giving the bread. In the meantime, he kept playing political games, dragging his heels on the Astana Peace Process and barely pretending to engage with the Geneva Peace Process. Turkiye’s Erdogan has been trying to meet him and rekindle a normalisation process, but Assad in his arrogance refused. The US is going through a presidential transition, of course, and Biden is a lame duck who at this stage of his time in the White House won’t be making decisions of any strategic importance. Assad thought that he could play states off against each other and it seems to have blown up in his face. Given that he escaped any real punishment from the international community for repeated use of chemical weapons and years of dropping barrel bombs on hospitals and schools, it’s obvious why he became so arrogant. As opposition forces declare a Syria free from the Assad dynasty’s rule for the first time since 1971, there are a plethora of challenges to face. They will now need to build institutions and prove that they are serious about governing the country. They must be able to work with state bureaucracy and deliver basic services such as electricity and water. The early signs are encouraging, with reports from Aleppo that residents have access to electricity. The security situation is also crucial, and looting and chaos must be prevented. The fact that former Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi Al-Jalali is supervising state bodies until a transition goes ahead to provide some continuity of service is good news. The north east region which has been ruled by the separatist Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and other Kurdish groups will require a delicate balancing act by the new authority in Damascus. The SDF worked tacitly with Assad in the past so must be convinced to work with the new government. Furthermore, the new authority must be wary of Israel’s cross-border incursions since Assad’s abrupt departure. It is imperative for HTS to kickstart a political transition as soon as possible. Ideally, the group will be dissolved, as promised, and an independent body will govern day to day as an election date is set and a constitution is drafted. HTS is designated as a terrorist organisation by the US, the UK, the UN and others, although its leader, Abu Mohammed Al-Jolani — real name Ahmed Al-Sharaa — has stressed the fact that it has long broken from Al-Qaeda. In a recent CNN interview, he promised that Syria’s minorities will be protected and that a proper legal system will be put in place. It is too early to tell whether this is just good PR or is genuine and, if it is the latter, if he can ensure that opposition groups on the ground will listen. The Syrian people rose up in 2011 against the Assad regime to demand a system that respects human rights and the rule of law and gives the people the dignity they deserve. If any authority does not do this, they can expect resistance quickly. Ideally, the International Criminal Court will charge Assad with committing war crimes and crimes against humanity and issue an arrest warrant. There has been movement towards this in the past, but it has moved at a glacial pace. This is the justice that the Syrian people crave. The finality of seeing Assad and his cronies in the dock will not bring back the dead or disappeared, but it would go some way to easing the pain of their families. Ultimately, it must be for the Syrian people to choose their next leader and take their next steps. Russia, Iran, the US, Israel, Turkey and the Gulf states should not have a say, and any international effort should only be to help coordinate the operations of a transitional government which can facilitate free and fair elections in the coming months. The Syrian people overthrew Assad themselves; all it took was for Assad’s backers to abandon him. The sacrifices that the people have made over the past decade are astonishing, and the stream of released detainees demonstrates this, as even women and children were amongst those detained unjustly. Syria will now be what is meant to be: a republic. It is no longer one of just two states with a hereditary presidency. History tells us that empires rise and fall, and that nothing is guaranteed forever. The uprising of the Syrian people demonstrated this. Once-powerful states can crumble quicker than expected, and what was achieved in Syria can be an example for others. As we think about the aggression of Israel against the Palestinian people, we see that it’s sowing the seeds for its own demise in the future. As we learn from history, oppressive regimes set themselves up to fail, and the status quo which benefits the oppressor crumbles. (Zaki Kaf Al-Ghazal is the Media and Advocacy Officer of the Syrian Association of Yorkshire having completed an LLM in Legal and Political Theory at the University of York, he is currently a PhD candidate at the same university’s Law School.) Copy 10/12/2024 10Eagles receivers Smith and Brown complain about vanishing pass offense during winning streak
DALLAS — The sweepstakes to land Japanese hard-throwing right-hander Roki Sasaki are underway. The posting process for Sasaki to make the move to Major League Baseball began Tuesday, and his agent, Joel Wolfe, estimated that three or four teams already had submitted initial presentations to pitch their organization to the phenom. Among them? The Chicago Cubs. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer confirmed Wednesday that the Cubs sent theirs to Sasaki’s agency as the organization looks to land another Japanese star alongside Seiya Suzuki and Shota Imanaga, two of the franchise’s best and highest-paid players. “I know we’re very appealing to Japanese players,” Hoyer said Wednesday at the winter meetings. “Obviously Shota and Seiya have had really good experiences.” Wolfe is not sure yet what Sasaki will want to prioritize when picking his team. Money is one consideration that is not expected to factor heavily into his decision. Teams are limited in what they can financially offer Sasaki. Because he is an international amateur free agent, the money must come from an organization’s international bonus pool. The 2025 signing period begins Jan. 15; Sasaki’s posting window runs until 4 p.m. Jan. 23. “There were some accusations, allegations — all of them false — made about predetermined deals, things like that,” Wolfe said Tuesday. “However, MLB rightly wanted to make sure that this was going to be a fair and level playing field for everyone, so they did their due diligence and interviewed numerous parties ahead of time to make sure that that was the case. They wanted to make sure that Roki would most likely, while he would have the opportunity to sign in ’24, give himself the best opportunity to get the best deal for him and for Chiba, and that Chiba would also have that opportunity. So, it made sense to post at this time so that he could go into the ’25 pool when the teams have much more substantial international bonus money.” Teams’ pools range from $7.55 million — the Tampa Bay Rays, Milwaukee Brewers and Seattle Mariners among them — to $5.14 million — the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants. The Cubs have $6.26 million along with 11 other teams. Once the 2025 signing period opens, teams can trade for international pool money, in $250,000 increments, up to 60% of their initial total. Although Wolfe didn’t pinpoint many specifics of what Sasaki will value when weighing his options, he did note the pitcher has paid attention to teams’ success both this year and recent history and kept an eye on what his World Baseball Classic teammates have done. Sasaki, 23, has talked with a lot of players, including foreign players who have been on his Nippon Professional Baseball team, Chiba Lotte, and asks a lot of questions about weather, comfortability and pitching development. Wolfe plans to meet with Sasaki in person over the next couple of days and map out a schedule to meet with teams “hopefully” beginning next week. He does not know how many teams will get a meeting with Sasaki. The right-hander plans to return to Japan before Christmas and possibly stay one to two weeks. Before returning to the States, Wolfe expects they would discuss whether Sasaki at that point travels to see some cities or returns to have more in-person meetings. “We’re going to leave it open-ended depending on how the first round of meetings go, how many meetings he actually has, how many total meetings he plans to have,” Wolfe said. “But we didn’t give teams a hard deadline to submit (presentations) because we want them to be able to put the time in to do it right. Obviously some teams were already working on these things, some of them for months, I believe.” Joel Wolfe, agent for Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki, speaks with reporters at the Major League Baseball winter meetings on Dec. 10, 2024, in Dallas. (Tony Gutierrez/AP) Signing Sasaki would be a coup for a Cubs organization that has invested time and resources to making inroads in Japan, evident by their signings of Suzuki and Imanaga. Sasaki who dealt with shoulder inflammation/soreness in 2024, posted a 2.35 ERA and 129 strikeouts over 111 innings (18 games) for Chiba Lotte. He could have set himself up for a massive payday like Yoshinobu Yamamoto got from the Dodgers last offseason if he waited two more years to be posted. Related Articles Chicago Cubs | 2025 MLB draft order is set: White Sox get the No. 10 pick and Cubs land at No. 17 Chicago Cubs | Column: Dizzying sports week includes Dick Allen’s journey, a CFP grievance and Melody Rogers on Abe Gibron Chicago Cubs | Seiya Suzuki would consider waiving his no-trade clause if the Chicago Cubs want to move the outfielder Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs great Ryne Sandberg, 65, says his cancer has relapsed and spread to other organs Chicago Cubs | Mike Tauchman goes from North Side to South Side after agreeing to contract with White Sox Wolfe called it a difficult question to answer as to why Sasaki wanted to be posted now. “Some of it is Japanese culture, some of it is just Roki Sasaki — there are no absolutes in baseball, and through Roki’s eyes, there are no absolutes in life,” Wolfe explained. “He does not take anything for granted. It is not an absolute lock, as some people in baseball have assumed that two years from now, he’s going to get a Yamamoto contract. Baseball just doesn’t work that way. If you look at the epidemic of injuries, it’s not just here. They have the same potential issues. He could have Tommy John surgery. He’s had two shoulder injuries; he’s had oblique injuries. Things may not go the way they want. “The other thing is, it’s always been his dream to come to the major leagues since he was in high school. He’s grown up idolizing players like Yu Darvish and (Masahiro) Tanaka and (Daisuke) Matsuzaka. This is something he has always wanted to do, and when he went to WBC and he was around some of these major-league players, it really rubbed off on him that he became sure that this is what I want to do as soon as possible.” Wolfe assumes the Padres will be a team Sasaki seriously considers because of Darvish’s presence. The Dodgers have long been speculated to be among the front-runners too. The restrictions of being signed within an international bonus pool help even the playing field, and Wolfe indicated Sasaki will “absolutely” consider all market sizes. “I think that there’s an argument to be made that a small- or mid-market team might be more beneficial for him as a soft landing coming from Japan,” Wolfe said. “Given what he’s been through and not having an enjoyable experience with media, it might be. It might be. I’m not saying it will be, but I don’t know how he’s going to view it.” Playing on the West Coast, closer to Japan, versus elsewhere hasn’t been brought up, Wolfe said, and seems unlikely to be a factor. He estimated at least half of major-league teams scouted Sasaki this year. Hoyer and the Cubs are among those who have gotten in-person looks. “The success of Seiya, the success of Shota, hopefully, has shown the other players around the NPB that Chicago is a destination that really thrives in that type of environment, and we’re excited to showcase that and use those guys to showcase that,” general manager Carter Hawkins said. Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga reacts after striking out the last batter of the seventh inning during a game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Wrigley Field in Chicago on Sept. 4, 2024. (Chris Sweda/Chicago Tribune) The Cubs possess an advantage of understanding what goes into helping Japanese players make the transition on and off the field when coming to the majors. On the baseball side, there are adjustments to the strike zone and how to attack big-league hitters. Having access to more analytical information and data than in the NPB means knowing how to best convey and utilize that for Japanese players, something Imanaga appreciated during his rookie season in learning how to meld it with trusting the feel for his pitches. “What we’re most proud of, though, is the foundational things from an environment perspective,” Hawkins said. Adapting culturally sometimes can be tougher than getting used to a new league. Hawkins credited major-league video coordinator and Pacific Rim liaison Nao Masamoto and his wife for helping assimilate the families of Japanese players over the years. Shingo Murata, part of their research and development department, has been vital in helping interpret some of the intricacies of the language that the Cubs use on the baseball side with their coaching staff and directly to the player. Other infrastructure, including nutrition and strength and conditioning, have helped ensure Japanese players are getting what they need in every facet. The Cubs have developed a general blueprint for attracting Japanese players to their organization the previous three years with their successful pitches to Suzuki and Imanaga. That doesn’t mean they run it back the same each time they make a presentation. The Cubs have learned from each experience, and it is expected to help guide their approach with Sasaki. “At the end of the day, you realize that these guys are competitive baseball players that want to be better at baseball,” Hawkins said. “And so yes, I’m most proud of the things that we’ve done off the field because they’re just less obvious. But in terms of what’s most important, it’s how do we help these players be the best versions of themselves? That’s what we’ve learned, that’s where the focus has to be. “Making sure that we’re focusing on ways to enhance and optimize their game, that’s something that we’ve definitely learned, and then definitely made sure we don’t sell ourselves short that way.”
Scholastic Corporation Announces Third Quarter DividendConservative Party of B.C. Leader John Rustad faces a test after 13 members of his caucus have asked him to essentially discipline Conservative MLA Elenore Sturko for comments that she made about a former Vancouver Police Board member. The signed letter published by radio host Jas Johal on X Thursday (Dec. 5) calls on Rustad to "invite" Sturko to "offer" Comfort Sakoma-Fadugba a written apology after Sturko had criticized her, following Sakoma-Fadugba's controversial remarks about the nature of Canadian society. Sakoma-Fadugba left her position Nov. 22 after several social media posts linked to her became public. Screenshots of the Instagram stories linked to Sakoma-Fadugba show Reddit posts lamenting the loss of Christian values in the face of immigration and criticized "woke culture" as well gender transitions. The alleged statements cost Sakoma-Fadugba her job on the police board and drew criticism from various corners of the political spectrum, including Sturko, a former RCMP officer and member of the LGBTQ2S+ community. “When we have statements being made that erode the public’s trust, or their comfort with their police service, it makes it that much harder on the front-line officers," Sturko told the CBC in November. But this statement did not sit well with her 13 colleagues, calling on Rustad to ask Sturko for the apology "and to encourage the Vancouver Police Board to advance conciliatory discussions with (Sakoma-Fadugba)." But that is not their only demand. "If Ms. Sturko declines your invitation, we ask that you offer this apology and encouragement on behalf of the Conservative caucus," they write. This double-demand appears to put Rustad in a double-bind. He either follows the demands from his part of his caucus ostensibly aimed at one of their own or he undermines the position of Sturko by issuing an apology on her behalf. "The way he responds will tell us something about where his own loyalties lie," UBC political scientist Stewart Prest said. "We do know that he is quite supportive of articulations of these kinds of more critical views of modernity ... so it may be that he has a certain amount of sympathy with the letter writers and his response will tell us whether that's the case. At the same time, a leader has another responsibility to the larger caucus as well. It may be that there are other members of the caucus who feel (Sturko) was quite correct in offering that assessment, and then has nothing to apologize for." Found within the letter is also a larger expression of sympathy for Sakoma-Fadugba's statements and a request to Rustad to give those views room by reminding him of what the signatories consider Rustad's own views to be. "The posts express views many Conservatives (including Conservative MLAs and staff) hold in support for parental rights, religious faith, and the pursuit of shared Canadian values," it reads. "Under your leadership, the Conservative Party of BC has consistently denounced 'cancel culture' and stood for the Charter rights British Columbians enjoy to free expression and freedom of religion," it reads. "The very first question you raised in the (legislature) as leader was in defence of parental rights." “Will the minister admit this SOGI 123 has been divisive and an assault on parents’ rights and a distraction to student education?” Rustad asked on Oct. 3, 2023. That question drew a rebuke from Premier David Eby, who called the question "outrageous" in accusing Rustad of leveraging children for culture-war purposes. “Shame on him," Eby said. "Choose another question." Prest called the letter a "deliberately provocative approach" that speaks to the ideological divisions within the party now for everyone to see. "It's putting right out in the open something we knew was going to be part of this, this challenging political coalition bringing together more populist-style conservatives with more, if you like, centrist or politically moderate types such (Sturko)." None of the 13 signatories once sat with Sturko when she was part of BC United and all were elected on Oct. 13 as first time Conservative candidates. Of note, is also the geographical representation of the MLAs. Eleven signatories represent ridings outside of Metro Vancouver and Greater Victoria including areas in the Fraser Valley and the Okanagan. Three signatories – Dallas Brodie (Vancouver-Quilchena), Brent Chapman (Surrey-South) and Anna Kindy (North Island) – have also found their names in the news over comments that they had made before or during the election campaign, with Chapman being perhaps the most widely reported one following his comments about Palestinian children made in 2015. "I would suggest that we are seeing to emerge, perhaps the makings of which you could almost call a Freedom Caucus in the (Conservative Party of B.C.), the sense that there's a group within a group that looks at the world quite differently than other members of that caucus," Prest said. This is not the first time that Sturko has been the object of criticism from within the Conservative Party of B.C. While still with B.C. United, Conservative candidate Paul Ratchford had called her a "woke, lesbian, social justice warrior." At the same time, Sturko had also been critical of the Conservatives, while still with B.C. United. In early October 2023, Sturko called on Rustad to apologize after appearing to draw a comparison with harms caused by residential schools and parental concerns about SOGI 123. Rustad denied making such a comparison. Sturko also called on Rustad to apologize after he had referred to being LGBTQ2S+ as a "lifestyle" in a media interview. When asked to comment on the letter from her colleagues, Sturko said deferred to Rustad. "This letter was addressed to John. I'm going to allow him the opportunity to speak to it at this time." Black Press Media has reached out to the Conservative Party of B.C., including Rustad's spokesperson and Rustad himself for comment.President Joe Biden paid tribute to his “great friend” and predecessor in the White House, Jimmy Carter , who died earlier today at 100. Biden also said that he will be ordering an official state funeral for the former president. Traditionally, during such ceremonies, the former president lies in state at the Capitol Rotunda, followed by a funeral at Washington National Cathedral. The flag at the White House also was lowered to half staff this evening. “Today, America and the world lost an extraordinary leader, statesman and humanitarian,” Biden said. “Over six decades, we had the honor of calling Jimmy Carter a dear friend. But, what’s extraordinary about Jimmy Carter, though, is that millions of people throughout America and the world who never met him thought of him as a dear friend as well.” Biden said last year that Carter had asked him to deliver his eulogy. Biden was the first sitting U.S. senator to endorse Carter’s presidential bid in 1975, when his run for the White House was still considered a long shot bid. “With his compassion and moral clarity, he worked to eradicate disease, forge peace, advance civil rights and human rights, promote free and fair elections, house the homeless, and always advocate for the least among us. He saved, lifted, and changed the lives of people all across the globe,” Biden said. “He was a man of great character and courage, hope and optimism. We will always cherish seeing him and Rosalynn together. The love shared between Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter is the definition of partnership and their humble leadership is the definition of patriotism.” Biden and First Lady Jill Biden visited Carter and Rosalynn Carter at their home in Plains in 2021. “We sat and talked about the old days,” Biden said, per the AP. Rosalynn Carter died last year. “We will miss them both dearly, but take solace knowing they are reunited once again and will remain forever in our hearts.” “To the entire Carter family, we send our gratitude for sharing them with America and the world. To their staff – from the earliest days to the final ones – we have no doubt that you will continue to do the good works that carry on their legacy. “And to all of the young people in this nation and for anyone in search of what it means to live a life of purpose and meaning – the good life – study Jimmy Carter, a man of principle, faith, and humility. He showed that we are great nation because we are a good people – decent and honorable, courageous and compassionate, humble and strong.” The Carters were present at the last state funeral, held in 2018 for former President George H.W. Bush.
Qatar tribune Zaki Kaf Al-Ghazal One of the earliest slogans of the 2011 revolutionaries in Syria was, “The Syrian people will not be humiliated.” They were right. In the end, it was their President, Bashar Al-Assad, who fled from Syria in the middle of the night without even notifying his loyalists. He made a quick exit knowing that all was lost. The Assad family mafia, which has been in power for 54 years, has collapsed. The president of Syria for 24 years is now apparently in Moscow. After an uprising that has lasted 13 years, the significance of this news cannot be understated. Syria is currently the only bastion of the 2011 Arab Spring with a live revolution left. Egypt, Tunisia and Bahrain fell prey to the forces of the counter-revolution, whilst Libya and Yemen were engulfed totally by chaos. Russia and Iran have essentially kept the Assad regime in place over the past few years; the former with diplomatic protection at the UN and constant air support, and the latter with its militias and proxies, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah, working on the ground to organise Assad’s forces. Russia has had access to Mediterranean ports for its navy, whilst Iran has used Syria to expand its hegemony in the region and supply arms to Hezbollah with ease. Even Israel has benefited from the Assad family, and has been advocating quietly for him to stay. The Golan Heights, occupied illegally by Israel since 1967, have been quiet since 1973 and Israel has craved the stability that the Assad regime has offered. Efforts to normalise and rehabilitate the Assad regime gained traction only 18 months ago as various Arab states rushed to readmit Bashar to the Arab League, with policymakers and pundits commenting that Assad has won and that the war is over. As mentioned on multiple occasions, though, Assad’s “victory” was both pyrrhic and short term. The swift collapse of his regime in a matter of days only lends credence to this view. The governance of Syria by Assad and his cronies has been an utter failure. Syria is recognised by experts as a failed state. The economy is moribund, and life there has come to a grinding halt for most of its citizens. Emigration and the fleeing of hundreds of thousands of working-age men who are refugees across the Middle East and Europe because they fear living under Assad’s rule has hit the regime hard. There are no opportunities for the young, and unless its citizens have access to remittances from abroad or have support from benefactors in the state or pro-government militias, then even buying bread and groceries are difficult due to rampant inflation. Syria is now also a narco-state, and it seems that the regime has collapsed under the weight of its own incompetence and brutality. Moreover, Assad’s allies have been unimpressed with him more recently.A number of senior Iranian army commanders have been killed in Syria in recent weeks and months, having been targeted by Israeli air strikes. The fact that this has been happening so often has led to questions about Assad’s officials leaking information to the occupation state. Whether intentional or a result of endemic corruption in the military, the Iranians are deeply unhappy that a regime that they have propped up for years can’t keep its benefactor’s commanders safe. Russia, meanwhile, has been unhappy about Assad’s reluctance to engage with the Astana Peace Process, which, ironically, happens to be weighted heavily in his favour. It is also worth mentioning that the issue of Syrian refugees in Turkiye has become a challenge for President Erdogan, who has been keen to find a solution and resettle them after coming under domestic pressure to do something. The Arab states which have pushed for normalisation with Assad over the past year and a half have not seen any fall in the captagon trade which his regime has fuelled, and are having to deal with the consequences. Assad has done nothing to show that he’s distanced himself from Iran which was part of the Arab states’ demand for normalising relations with Damascus again. And although Assad has claimed for years to be a part of the “Axis of resistance”, the regime has said and done nothing as Gaza burned and its people continue to face a genocide, even as thousands of Palestinian refugees are still in Assad’s prisons, and people still remember his massacres of them. The accumulation of all of these circumstances and events provided the opposition in Syria with the opportunity to strike now. The opposition forces today are a different proposition to those of the early revolutionary years, when they were loosely organised factions with little access to weapons. There seems to be a sense of unity amongst them which has been missing. Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), operating under the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG), and other factions — including Ahrar Al-Sham, the Sham Legion and the Nour Al–Din Al-Zenki Movement, for example — used the element of surprise to launch an attack on Aleppo which was more successful than people thought it would be. Assad’s forces, the Syrian Arab Army, are a hollow shell of their previous self; morale is low and funding has been cut for months due to economic problems. Even a last-minute attempt to raise the troops’ salaries didn’t offer any encouragement. The soldiers being called up were young men forced onto the front-line; professional troops were killed in combat years ago or had defected. These young men saw Israel as their enemy, not fellow Syrians. Moreover, there were tensions with the few Iranian units still on the ground, with Syrian soldiers feeling that they were looked down upon in their own country, which didn’t bode well. When this is factored in alongside the absence of Hezbollah due to the movement’s weakening in the war with Israel, it should have been no surprise that the Syrian regime forces collapsed as quickly as they did. The opposition forces in Idlib, meanwhile, were organising and preparing themselves over a longer period, had established a local governing system and had even managed to make and produce some of their own weapons, including the “Shaheen” drones which helped in their quick advance towards Aleppo and Damascus. When Aleppo was liberated, the Assad regime repeated the same tactics it has used over the course of the 13 year conflict, shelling the city and bombing hospitals to terrorise its citizens into submission. This time though, due to Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine and its own exasperation with the regime, its support was much more limited, and Assad’s air strikes alone weren’t enough.He was arrogant and thought that he was his father, Hafez, who was well-known for the “hamburger trick”; he would toy with other leaders, pretending to offer something substantive (the “hamburger”), while actually just giving the bread. In the meantime, he kept playing political games, dragging his heels on the Astana Peace Process and barely pretending to engage with the Geneva Peace Process. Turkiye’s Erdogan has been trying to meet him and rekindle a normalisation process, but Assad in his arrogance refused. The US is going through a presidential transition, of course, and Biden is a lame duck who at this stage of his time in the White House won’t be making decisions of any strategic importance. Assad thought that he could play states off against each other and it seems to have blown up in his face. Given that he escaped any real punishment from the international community for repeated use of chemical weapons and years of dropping barrel bombs on hospitals and schools, it’s obvious why he became so arrogant. As opposition forces declare a Syria free from the Assad dynasty’s rule for the first time since 1971, there are a plethora of challenges to face. They will now need to build institutions and prove that they are serious about governing the country. They must be able to work with state bureaucracy and deliver basic services such as electricity and water. The early signs are encouraging, with reports from Aleppo that residents have access to electricity. The security situation is also crucial, and looting and chaos must be prevented. The fact that former Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi Al-Jalali is supervising state bodies until a transition goes ahead to provide some continuity of service is good news. The north east region which has been ruled by the separatist Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and other Kurdish groups will require a delicate balancing act by the new authority in Damascus. The SDF worked tacitly with Assad in the past so must be convinced to work with the new government. Furthermore, the new authority must be wary of Israel’s cross-border incursions since Assad’s abrupt departure. It is imperative for HTS to kickstart a political transition as soon as possible. Ideally, the group will be dissolved, as promised, and an independent body will govern day to day as an election date is set and a constitution is drafted. HTS is designated as a terrorist organisation by the US, the UK, the UN and others, although its leader, Abu Mohammed Al-Jolani — real name Ahmed Al-Sharaa — has stressed the fact that it has long broken from Al-Qaeda. In a recent CNN interview, he promised that Syria’s minorities will be protected and that a proper legal system will be put in place. It is too early to tell whether this is just good PR or is genuine and, if it is the latter, if he can ensure that opposition groups on the ground will listen. The Syrian people rose up in 2011 against the Assad regime to demand a system that respects human rights and the rule of law and gives the people the dignity they deserve. If any authority does not do this, they can expect resistance quickly. Ideally, the International Criminal Court will charge Assad with committing war crimes and crimes against humanity and issue an arrest warrant. There has been movement towards this in the past, but it has moved at a glacial pace. This is the justice that the Syrian people crave. The finality of seeing Assad and his cronies in the dock will not bring back the dead or disappeared, but it would go some way to easing the pain of their families. Ultimately, it must be for the Syrian people to choose their next leader and take their next steps. Russia, Iran, the US, Israel, Turkey and the Gulf states should not have a say, and any international effort should only be to help coordinate the operations of a transitional government which can facilitate free and fair elections in the coming months. The Syrian people overthrew Assad themselves; all it took was for Assad’s backers to abandon him. The sacrifices that the people have made over the past decade are astonishing, and the stream of released detainees demonstrates this, as even women and children were amongst those detained unjustly. Syria will now be what is meant to be: a republic. It is no longer one of just two states with a hereditary presidency. History tells us that empires rise and fall, and that nothing is guaranteed forever. The uprising of the Syrian people demonstrated this. Once-powerful states can crumble quicker than expected, and what was achieved in Syria can be an example for others. As we think about the aggression of Israel against the Palestinian people, we see that it’s sowing the seeds for its own demise in the future. As we learn from history, oppressive regimes set themselves up to fail, and the status quo which benefits the oppressor crumbles. (Zaki Kaf Al-Ghazal is the Media and Advocacy Officer of the Syrian Association of Yorkshire having completed an LLM in Legal and Political Theory at the University of York, he is currently a PhD candidate at the same university’s Law School.) Copy 10/12/2024 10Fijian Drua half back Philip Baselala is ready to make his move for a top three position. The 20-year-old is currently ranked fourth for the position in the current Drua squad where he has to compete against Frank Lomani, Simione Kuruvoli and Peni Matawalu. “This is one of my main targets for next season (Super Rugby Pacific) and that is to get more game time,” Baselala said. “Frank and Simi encouraged me to challenge each other because it won’t only help us but also help push for our fitness and to get a spot (in the starting line-up). Baselala has played two Super Rugby matches in 2023. Then this year he suffered a knee injury that kept him off the whole season. Not only that, this season the former Suva Grammar School back also suffered a wrist injury where he had to undergo surgery. “I was able to complete my rehab and I finally got the green light to play again,” he added. Feedback: waisean@fijisun.com.fj
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